Unintended Consequences

Several years ago, I was working in Mexico City (before the drug cartels were in power). At the time, it was listed as the most polluted city in the world (population 21 million). Among the reasons for that distinction is the topographical "bowl" shape of its location, the extreme number of cars on the road there, and that the cars on the road were out of tune and/or badly maintained. The Mexican Government decided that they should step in to ameliorate the situation.

To encourage car-pooling or the use of mass transportation and also to decrease the amount of cars on the road and the resulting pollution, the Government made a regulation based on every one's license plate. Since every plate ended in a digit, the Government decided that those cars that had license tags ending in an even digit were the only cars allowed on the road on even numbered calendar days and only those cars ending with an odd number were allowed to be driven on the roads on the odd numbered days of the month. (Allowances were made to the "evens" for the number of times a 31 and a 1 were back to back, and those with a "Zero" at the end of their license plate were counted as an even number.)

The citizens of Mexico City chose to go a different way -- they bought a junker second car, traded with neighbors and family to get the opposite number license plate, so they could drive to work every day, but half of the time they were driving a car that was a worse polluter -- and there were now more cars available to the rest of the family, hence more cars on the road and more pollution ! The pollution in Mexico City increased as the result of the attempt to curb it.

Unintended Consequences !!

The Sociologist, Robert K. Merton (1910-2003), coined the phrase, "unintended consequences" in the 1930's. (He is also noted for creating the phrase "role model" and "self-fulfilling prophecy.") The idea of unintended consequences had been around for a long time, as in, for every cause there is a multitude of effects, not just one.

Quite a thought, eh? We speak of "cause and effect" as if there were only one effect, when there may be many effects to one cause, with most of the effects unanticipated.

*Merton listed five possible causes of unanticipated consequences:

"... Ignorance (It is impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis)

... Error (Incorrect analysis of the problem or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation)

... Immediate interest, which may override long-term interests

... Basic values may require or prohibit certain actions even if the long-term result might be unfavorable (these long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in basic values)

... Self-Defeating Prophecy (Fear of some consequence drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is unanticipated.)"* Quoted from VW quote of Merton

And then there is the matter of the "Relevance Paradox." People only seek the information that seems relevant to their quest and are blissfully ignorant of items that are relevant but that do not rise to a level of recognition because the investigator does not see the material as relevant.

Example: A person who is near sighted does not know that their sight is impaired until they put corrective glasses on, but they cannot see where the glasses are in order to put them on.

So, what is this discourse all about, the reader may ask?

The intervention of our Government into people's lives, through regulation, has caused many unintended consequences, most of them negative.

... Social Security, which was set up to be self-funding, is financially unstable because Congress in the 1990's allowed Social Security money to be used in the General Fund. Result -- Social Security will go broke before 2020.

... Well-meaning legislator's thought that every American should own their own home and created lending agencies for the purpose of lending money to risky mortgagees and then threatened banks if they didn't cooperate. Fannie May and Freddie Mac were the results and the whole real estate bubble was caused by the unintended consequence of paving the way for every American to own their own home.

... The War on Drugs has forced minor drug operations to consolidate with others, forming larger drug organizations, centralizing control over the illegal drug industry in the US, making them stronger -- not the intended result.

The huge changes that Congress is making in Health Care, Corporations, Environmental Regulations, Immigration is fraught with unintended consequences -- and I can't imagine all of these unrealized effects will be good.

This rush to legislate social change because the political stars are aligned needs to stop; that is the wrong reason to change. History tells us all too well that the Government's track record of intrusion into people's lives and behaviour does not work -- Prohibition, Welfare, Busing.

The Political Class needs to be broken apart and the citizens of the United States can do that by imposing term limits. Congress would never impose term limits upon itself, of course, so We, the People, need to do it by voting them out of office, every time they come up for re-election. Forget about political affiliation and parties, which used to stand for something; now it does not.

If a Legislator gets elected, make it a one term appointment and then bring them back to the private sector. Vote them out of office every time. They have shown you no loyalty; return the favor. That is the only way to get their attention. (A tip of the hat to LC and RC.)

“Politicians are like diapers. They both need changing regularly and for the same reason.”
~Anonymous