Traveling

Snow, ice, heater, defroster, coffee, EZPass, trucks, wind, family, hugs, wine, presents, games, pancakes, grilled cheese, Snow, ice, heater, defroster, wife, EZPass, trucks, wind, Highway Patrol, chicken salad, coffee, apple, family, Uncle, buffet, wine, cookie. Snow, ice, heater, wife, Bob Evans, friends, coffee, restroom, Star on Wall, snow, ice, heater,wife, water, apple, Shaw's, sun, traffic, heater, defroster, wife, traffic, water, Glucerna, I-70, I-79, 519, Venetia, wine.

"You have to careful when you are traveling, because if you don't know where you are going, you might not get there"

~ Yogi Berra

Saint Nicholas x 3

On this Christmas Eve, dear reader, I draw your attention to three iterations of Saint Nicholas. The historic Saint Nicholas lived from 247 - 346 and was active in Asia Minor, finally becoming Bishop of Myra. The numerous good works and miracles associated with him caused Nicholas to be elevated to Sainthood. His relics reside in the Basilica of Bari on the Adriatic Coast of Italy. Originally, his relics were housed in Myra (in present day Turkey), but in the 11th Century they were moved to Bari . Throughout that time and in both locations, his relics oozed a clear liquid with the odor of rose petals. The liquid is thought to possess healing powers. Each year the priests of the Basilica of Bari collect a vial of it on Saint Nicholas' Feast Day, December 6.

And then there is St. Nicholas Church in Oberdorf, Austria where on Christmas Eve in 1818, the Church organ was not working. With the important Christmas Eve Mass just hours away, the Priest, Father Josef Mohr and the organist, Franz Gruber met to decide what to do. Father Mohr would write a poem and the organist, who also played the guitar, would compose a melody.

That evening, they presented their little piece of music to the congregation as the special music for the Mass. The carol was called "Silent Night." It's popularity and use quickly spread, and the Christmas carol made its way to the United States with the German migration in the middle of the 19th Century. This afternoon at 5:00pm, many people will gather at a small chapel in Oberndorf to sing "Silent Night" as a tribute to Father Mohr and Franz Gruber, and in recognition of the spirit of the season.

The third Saint Nicholas I bring before the reader is the one in Clement Moore's poem, "Twas the Night Before Christmas" published in Troy, New York, 1823, for it is this description, excerpted below, that defined Santa Claus then and still does today:

As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,

When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky.

So up to the house-top the coursers they flew,

With a sleigh full of toys, and St. Nicholas, too.

---

And then, in a twinkling, I heard on the roof

The prancing and pawing of each little hoof.

As I drew in my head, and was turning around,

Down the chimney St. Nicholas came with a bound.

---

He was dressed all in fur, from his head to his foot,

And his clothes were all tarnished with ashes and soot.

A bundle of toys he had flung on his back,

And he looked like a peddler, just opening his pack.

---

His eyes-how they twinkled! His dimples how merry!

His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry!

His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,

And the beard on his chin was as white as the snow.

---

The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth,

And the smoke it encircled his head like a wreath.

He had a broad face and a little round belly,

That shook when he laughed, like a bowlful of jelly!

---

He was chubby and plump, a right jolly old elf,

And I laughed when I saw him, in spite of myself!

A wink of his eye and a twist of his head,

Soon gave me to know I had nothing to dread.

Some have suggested that I look like Mr. Moore's St. Nicholas. It is true that young children, particularly this time of year, do give me more than a second look when I wink at them. And, while I do have an innate ability to determine who has been naughty and nice, and, yes, I have on more than one occasion invited women to sit on my lap, I confess to not being able to wrap presents very well. Nevertheless, I leave it to the dear readers to make up your own minds about who is their Santa Claus.

'Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house

Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.

The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,

In hopes that St. Nicholas soon would be there.

~ Clement Moore, 1823

Gifts

The deep snow last Sunday forced the cancellation of the Children's Christmas Pageant at our church. The children had worked hard to memorize their lines and manage the props, and the producer and musicians (three recorders, clarinet, piano and organ) had rehearsed right along with them, as had the parents, of course. And then, there were the costumes -- sheep, donkeys, Angels, stars, Joseph, Mary -- and the Three Wise Men, the Three Kings; that was where I came in, as one of the three kings.


Being one of the Three Kings did not require much rehearsing -- follow the "Star" as she processed up the long center aisle, singing the first verse from memory, and bearing a gift. Then in turn, singing my verse as we presented our gifts to the baby in the cradle:

Gold- a gift for a king
Incense- a gift for a priest
Myrrh- a burial ointment for one who would die

The gifts are prophetic, particularly the last one (my verse) about Myrrh:

Myrrh is mine, its bitter perfume

Breathes of life of gathering gloom

Sorrowing, sighing, bleeding, dying

Sealed in the stone-cold tomb

With so much work and interest in the Pageant, it has been rescheduled as one of our five Church Services on Christmas Eve -- the Children's Service at 3:00pm. My costume a gorgeous royal blue sateen with golden stars in the design of the fabric, a crown and a painted wooden cigar box for the gift of Myrrh.

The practice of gift giving at this time of the year goes back to the time of the Romans. For Christians, the custom of giving gifts is traced back to the fourth century and Saint Nicholas of Myra, in present day Turkey. Nicholas, the Bishop of Myra, may also have been responsible for the custom of hanging stocking on the mantle of the fireplace. It seems that to assist a poor family, he placed gold coins in a stocking and threw them down the family's chimney.

Gifts are so plentiful in our society today, that "re-gifting" is becoming a practice and gift cards alleviate the stress and angst of what to give someone who has everything. Last night, our son and his family came over and we had dinner and exchanged gifts. Our Grandson, Jason, who is in Kindergarten, made a 2010 calendar as a gift with a picture of him in a symbol for the month on twelve different pages: Jason as a snowman for December; Jason on the beach with sunburned feet in July; Jason looking out the window of a school bus in September. I think we will enjoy that calendar for many more months than just the twelve months of 2010.

"Love is a gift. You can't buy it, you can't find it; someone has to give it to you."

~Kurt Langner

Ogham Stones

Today, I began writing again on Chapter Two of the third book which is set about the year 1000 AD. In the process, I renewed my acquaintance with Ogham Stones. There are about 400 of these standing stones mainly in Ireland but also in Wales and Scotland. Each of them have "hash" marks on them which, in various groupings, form an alphabet. It is not clear where writing in this style originated, but it is similar to the cipher Runes of Scandinavian origin.

Examples of these stones have been found in the US, most of them controversial. Of the Runic stones, the Kensington Stone found in Minnesota, is perhaps the most controversial since if it were proved to be Scandinavian in origin, the stone's presence in Minnesota would indicate that the Vikings had penetrated inland to the middle of the continent. So far, no credible archaeologist has supported the veracity of it, although the people of Kensington remain passionate supporters. It is housed in a Museum in Alexandria, Minnesota.

There are some stones carved by the pre-historic indigenous peoples in North America who were here for thousands of years before the Europeans arrived. One of several examples is the Gaitskill Tablet which was found in Gaitskill Mound near Mt. Sterling, Kentucky in 1920. Many have interpreted the image as a spider with the picture of a human on its back. This tablet has been identified as one produced by the Adena Culture, a woodland group that flourished in Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana and Illinois from 500BC - 500AD (more or less) and built huge earthworks and mounds.

Still in North America, more artwork on rocks can be found in the great Southwest such as at Petroglyph National Monument in New Mexico where there are more than 20,000 images and symbols carved into the rocks, probably created by the ancestor's of the Pueblo Indians. These images are more than art imitating nature, but rather represent powerful meanings to their creators who carefully oriented them.

With all of this, there was no written language left by the pre-historic peoples of North America -- at least not that has been found. Perhaps today with the proliferation of icons substituting for words, we may be migrating back to a day when symbols and images are more important than an alphabet and words.

“By phonemic trans-formation into visual terms, the alphabet became a universal, abstract, static container of meaningless sounds.”

~ Marshall McLuhan (1911 - 1980), Canadian Communications Theorist

My commitment to write a page a day on the third book has fallen by the wayside many days ago. The 13,000 word first chapter needs editing, but I can't resist going on. The second chapter has 1000 words so far, and is a good beginning, I think:

The central character is now 18 and his sister is 16. The sister has confronted him to warn him about how girls flirt with boys. One of the village girls in particular has zeroed in on her brother:

Sister stared me directly in the eyes—“I don’t like her and I don’t like the way you look at her.” Her arms were folded over her chest. She was in her sixteenth season and had an opinion on everything, including which girl I should admire.

Sister,” I answered, “have you never dreamed about having a life with someone in the future? You may see the face of him in your dreams, even though you have never met him. Yet, you are already beginning to feel something for him.”

Sister was looking down at the ground and drawing lines in the dust with her foot.

“Well, I have the same dreams—except now I have met that person. She has a face and a name. Can you imagine how exciting that must be for me? That is what I ask you to understand and feel.”

“Well, I don’t trust her,” Sister persisted, unconvinced. “And neither should you,” she said over her shoulder, as she stomped away, then broke into a run.

I want to get back to it, but realistically will not be able to pick it up until after the New Year, as the music of the season continues with one more Hymns program and a commitment to our Church's Pageant on Sunday. Then it is get ready for Christmas -- dinner with our Son and his Family on the 22nd, dinner with friends on the 24th, visit Daughter's family on the 25th, etc. All of these are pleasant and anticipated.

Maybe on December 27, I can get back to writing the next scene between our central character and his Father, the Chief, in which the 18 year old asks his father for advice on speaking with women; I'll be checking in with Mrs. Giles, frequently, as I write this one!

I'm all in favor of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with typewriters.

~ Frank Lloyd Wright (1868-1959)

Unintended Consequences

Several years ago, I was working in Mexico City (before the drug cartels were in power). At the time, it was listed as the most polluted city in the world (population 21 million). Among the reasons for that distinction is the topographical "bowl" shape of its location, the extreme number of cars on the road there, and that the cars on the road were out of tune and/or badly maintained. The Mexican Government decided that they should step in to ameliorate the situation.

To encourage car-pooling or the use of mass transportation and also to decrease the amount of cars on the road and the resulting pollution, the Government made a regulation based on every one's license plate. Since every plate ended in a digit, the Government decided that those cars that had license tags ending in an even digit were the only cars allowed on the road on even numbered calendar days and only those cars ending with an odd number were allowed to be driven on the roads on the odd numbered days of the month. (Allowances were made to the "evens" for the number of times a 31 and a 1 were back to back, and those with a "Zero" at the end of their license plate were counted as an even number.)

The citizens of Mexico City chose to go a different way -- they bought a junker second car, traded with neighbors and family to get the opposite number license plate, so they could drive to work every day, but half of the time they were driving a car that was a worse polluter -- and there were now more cars available to the rest of the family, hence more cars on the road and more pollution ! The pollution in Mexico City increased as the result of the attempt to curb it.

Unintended Consequences !!

The Sociologist, Robert K. Merton (1910-2003), coined the phrase, "unintended consequences" in the 1930's. (He is also noted for creating the phrase "role model" and "self-fulfilling prophecy.") The idea of unintended consequences had been around for a long time, as in, for every cause there is a multitude of effects, not just one.

Quite a thought, eh? We speak of "cause and effect" as if there were only one effect, when there may be many effects to one cause, with most of the effects unanticipated.

*Merton listed five possible causes of unanticipated consequences:

"... Ignorance (It is impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis)

... Error (Incorrect analysis of the problem or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation)

... Immediate interest, which may override long-term interests

... Basic values may require or prohibit certain actions even if the long-term result might be unfavorable (these long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in basic values)

... Self-Defeating Prophecy (Fear of some consequence drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is unanticipated.)"* Quoted from VW quote of Merton

And then there is the matter of the "Relevance Paradox." People only seek the information that seems relevant to their quest and are blissfully ignorant of items that are relevant but that do not rise to a level of recognition because the investigator does not see the material as relevant.

Example: A person who is near sighted does not know that their sight is impaired until they put corrective glasses on, but they cannot see where the glasses are in order to put them on.

So, what is this discourse all about, the reader may ask?

The intervention of our Government into people's lives, through regulation, has caused many unintended consequences, most of them negative.

... Social Security, which was set up to be self-funding, is financially unstable because Congress in the 1990's allowed Social Security money to be used in the General Fund. Result -- Social Security will go broke before 2020.

... Well-meaning legislator's thought that every American should own their own home and created lending agencies for the purpose of lending money to risky mortgagees and then threatened banks if they didn't cooperate. Fannie May and Freddie Mac were the results and the whole real estate bubble was caused by the unintended consequence of paving the way for every American to own their own home.

... The War on Drugs has forced minor drug operations to consolidate with others, forming larger drug organizations, centralizing control over the illegal drug industry in the US, making them stronger -- not the intended result.

The huge changes that Congress is making in Health Care, Corporations, Environmental Regulations, Immigration is fraught with unintended consequences -- and I can't imagine all of these unrealized effects will be good.

This rush to legislate social change because the political stars are aligned needs to stop; that is the wrong reason to change. History tells us all too well that the Government's track record of intrusion into people's lives and behaviour does not work -- Prohibition, Welfare, Busing.

The Political Class needs to be broken apart and the citizens of the United States can do that by imposing term limits. Congress would never impose term limits upon itself, of course, so We, the People, need to do it by voting them out of office, every time they come up for re-election. Forget about political affiliation and parties, which used to stand for something; now it does not.

If a Legislator gets elected, make it a one term appointment and then bring them back to the private sector. Vote them out of office every time. They have shown you no loyalty; return the favor. That is the only way to get their attention. (A tip of the hat to LC and RC.)

“Politicians are like diapers. They both need changing regularly and for the same reason.”
~Anonymous

CO2 Is A Danger To You ... and your Wallet

As the Copenhagen Conference on the Climate opened, the Obama Administration announced that Carbon Dioxide (CO2) was endangering the public health and welfare of US Citizens. This finding by the EPA, opens the door to more regulations and more bureaucracies.

Lisa Jackson, the EPA Administrator, admits that our new efforts to regulate Carbon Dioxide will have no effect on climate change. Additionally, our climate has been cooling since 1998, despite the dire predictions. So why is the EPA doing this?

Let's look at who is emitting CO2: Globally, as well as in the US, the largest reason for CO2 is the burning of fossil fuels. The chart to the left is from the EPA and shows statistics as of 2006.

In the US, the largest reason for burning fossil fuels is electricity generation. By far, the fuel most used by power plants is coal. (See below.)

The second largest consuming segment of fossil fuels is transportation, which uses petroleum most. Then industrial uses has a pretty even mix of coal and petroleum and natural gas as you can see from the chart below, also from the EPA.

This finding by the EPA and the resulting regulation will undoubtedly cause the costs of oil, natural gas and power to increase dramatically to you and me, as President Obama has predicted, since the governmental-caused increases in operating costs are always passed on to the consumer.

Rationally, if one were trying to pare back on the use of something -- say, coffee in the morning -- then one would replace the offending commodity with another option -- say a smoothie.

That is not the way of the government, however. They enact a punitive tax which always ends up being paid by the citizens of this country -- and today, there are less and less taxpayers and more and more tax consumers.

Wouldn't a better methodology for the Government be to encourage new substitutes for the offending commodity? Grants to entrepreneurs, prizes, competitions, encouragements to private enterprise -- rather than the very tired cry of "regulate, Regulate, REGULATE."

Back to the question of why the Government would cause another cost to the consumer in a dangerously down economy. I submit that it is self-perpetuation of government disguised as "protecting the people from a dangerous gas." More bureaucracy, more regulators, mean more positions for appointment.

Our Constitution, in Article 1, Section 8, gives Congress the right to levy taxes, duties, imposts and excises -- not the Administrative Branch. I ask you to consider whether or not rising costs caused by Government decisions should be considered taxes -- and if generated by the Administrative Branch, are therefore prohibited under the Constitution which gives that activity only to Congress, which is elected.

The EPA is not an elected office. If my electricity costs go up because of their action, then I am being taxed to pay for something.

Stop it!

Is It Possible?

Are the global-climate assumptions of the 16,500 delegates in Copenhagen correct? Is it possible their assumptions are based on faulty data?

In 1975, the media, the politicians and some scientists were convinced the global climate was headed for an "Ice Age." When the climate began to turn, they all agreed that further study was needed. Wouldn't that be an appropriate decision to make today, especially when the impact of an errant, albeit well-meaning, climate decision could inflict more human suffering and conflict than Co2 emissions will for the next 25 years?

Few people doubt that we need to be better stewards of our planet. Personally, I think that deforestation, particularly of the Brazilian Rainforest, is a bigger problem than Co2 emissions and has more impact on global climate, algae bloom and desert formation than Co2.

Who made the decision that Co2 was a bigger problem than deforestation? A committee from the United Nations? Al Gore?

Fact: The Polar Bear Population is the same today as it was in 1975.

Fact: Greenland was so named by the Vikings in the 11th Century because it was lush enough then to grow crops and not covered by ice as it is today.

Fact: The "Hockey Stick" proof to Climate Change was disproved in 2006.

Fact: The release of the Emails from East Anglia University show that the Climate Scientists there and in the United States manipulated their data to fit their conclusions.

Is it possible that those gathered in Copenhagen Denmark are working from flawed assumptions? Is it possible that in the hysteria of "saving the world," these 16,500 are all behaving like lemmings running off a cliff?

Is it possible that the dimension and scale of this Co2 scare is incorrect?

Is it possible that a tragic new chapter of Hans Christian Andersen's tale, "The Emperor's New Clothes" is being re-enacted in his beloved Copenhagen?

"Everyone said, loud enough for the others to hear: "Look at the Emperor's new clothes. They're beautiful!" "What a marvellous train!" "And the colours! The colours of that beautiful fabric! I have never seen anything like it in my life!"

They all tried to conceal their disappointment at not being able to see the clothes, and since nobody was willing to admit his own stupidity and incompetence, they all behaved as the two scoundrels had predicted.

A child, however, who had no important job and could only see things as his eyes showed them to him, went up to the carriage.

"The Emperor is naked," he said.

"Fool!" his father reprimanded, running after him. "Don't talk nonsense!" He grabbed his child and took him away. But the boy's remark, which had been heard by the bystanders, was repeated over and over again until everyone cried:

"The boy is right! The Emperor is naked! It's true!"

The Emperor realized that the people were right but could not admit to that. He thought it better to continue the procession under the illusion that anyone who couldn't see his clothes was either stupid or incompetent. And he stood stiffly on his carriage, while behind him a page held his imaginary mantle. "

~ From "The Emperor's New Clothes" by Hans Christian Andersen, 1837,
"Fairy Tales For Children"

The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference

The Hot Air over Copenhagen this week may be more of a threat to the climate than the supposed danger they are there to solve. Let's see ...

• 140 Private Planes are scheduled to land


• 1,200 Limos have been ordered for the delegates (only 5 are "green" because Denmark taxes new technology so highly that nobody is encouraged to build or import "green" vehicles.)


• 15,000 Delegates


• 5,000 journalists


• 98 World Leaders

What happened to video-conferencing to save the planet?

There is such an influx of people into Copenhagen that the "Sex Workers Union" -- yes, such activity is unionized over there (imagine a government bailout hearing on that one where "too big to fail" takes on a whole new meaning) -- has promised free sex to anyone with a Conference Pass; the Sex Workers Union is banking on repeat business, I guess. Video-conferencing does have its limitations.

While this is really all about the US and China coming to an agreement, the developing countries of Africa are demanding 8 billion a year to help them offset their costs till they are "developed." I'm certain that any money earmarked for that purpose will all be spent for that purpose, aren't you?

Al Gore has cancelled his visit -- too busy, I guess, to save the world at Copenhagen, or maybe he is concerned about the pollution his private jet would emit. Those concerns are not shared by a list of celebrities headed to Copenhagen on their planes -- Leonardo DiCaprio, Daryl Hannah, Helena Christensen, Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Prince Charles -- all there to be photographed...

...uhh help...

the delegates save the world...

...uhhh issue a statement of intent to save the world by ...

...uhhh 2050, yeaaahh 2050, that's it...

(when none of them will be alive to answer for their actions.)

Mr. Gore will sit back and wait for his Carbon Trading Company to benefit from all of the "Cap and Trade" activity, soon to begin in the US and then the world; no need to attend a conference now.

There should be conferences like this, but they should be organized by Scientists, whose motives are supposedly purer than politicians. The Climate Change Industry is the next financial bubble to be thrust upon the world by the political class.

In the meantime, there will be no progress despite the nightmares being predicted (and the polar bears being killed by you and me by driving our Civics and Priuses.) Next, an international plea will be raised by the politicians, requiring "one currency," followed by the need for a "one world government" promising "peace in our times."

Lock your billfolds up, now. These politicians know best how to protect the climate and harness the power of "scientific consensus," such as they did in 1975-76:

"... seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world's weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth's climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic."

~ Newsweek Magazine, April 28, 1975 -- "The Cooling World," article by Peter Gwynne

The Scientific Method and Climate Change

"No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong" ~ Albert Einstein

I do not profess to be a scientist or to employ the scientific method on any project I undertake. I believe, though, that the method is an organized quest for Truth which is why when science states it, we accept the statement as truth, because they have been rigorous in their examinations and experimentations

Einstein stated what many have come to accept as the basis for the scientific method -- "falsifying." No one has ever found evidence nullifying Einstein's Theory of Relativity, therefore, it is accepted as true, but is still listed as a theory.

In the several examples of falsifying, there is the story of "The White Swans." The scientist believes that there are only white swans in the world. What the scientist believes is true as long as he only sees white swans. He may have desperately wanted there to be only white swans in the world and invested a lot of his time, effort, reputation, and money in that belief. Then he sees his first black swan. Truth vs. Belief.

With the release of Climate Change emails from scientists in England and scientists at the University of Pennsylvania -- leading authorities on the subject -- revealing that they were refusing to acknowledge data that falsified their conclusions, the whole subject of Climate Change has been called into question.

The reader should not conclude that I am a nay-sayer on the matter of environmental concern. It only makes sense that we should take care of the planet. Each should do what they are able.

My concern here is that these Climatologists in their effort to preserve something about themselves -- reputation, grants, position, income -- have called into question the whole Scientific Method in which we have come to ... believe.

If the method and Science are to be trusted, then the Scientific Community needs somehow to rescue itself from those who have compromised the method.

As to the idea of Climate Change, I leave you, dear reader to decide for yourself whether this is another Ice Age we are entering since the global climate has been cooling since 1998, or whether it is Global Warming that is melting the icebergs off "Greenland."